|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
So will the US go the way of Japan?Cho Sing Kum
This month ends tomorrow. For the whole
of this month I can't help being bullish about the stock market. Can I
when I see rallies after rallies in the stock indices? I know I know I
am supposed to let the charts tell me what is happening and that I am
not to let my emotion gets in the way. I try to be "inhuman"
as much as I can be when I look at the market. So this morning I try to
check my emotion. I reread the article
Since
Not Last Year, Therefore This Year? which I wrote on 3rd
Feb 2003. Then I take a look at the updated S&P500 and Nikkei 225
charts that I put in that article. Remember I align the charts so that
the all-time highs of both match. This morning I see one more
similarity, which frighten me. The similarity in the rally of the Nikkei
225 in 1993 and the one happening right now in the S&P 500. Remember
this is aligned and matched, the reference being the all-time highs.
The rally in the Nikkei 225 started 38 months after the all-time high of December 1989. The present rally in the S&P 500 started 37 months after the all-time high of March 2000. How long did that rally in the Nikkei 225 last? Three months. And how long has the present rally in the S&P 500 been going on? Three months. Isn't this coincidence worrying? Why?
Because that rally in the Nikkei 225 stalled on the fourth month! And
July 2003 is the fourth month of this present S&P 500 rally!
Remember the chart is nothing but a reflection of resultant effect of
combined human action and reaction. Today I realize July 2003 is a very
important time. Will the S&P 500 break away from its similarity with
the Nikkei 225 and signal that the US will not go the way of Japan? Or
will the rally stall around now and the US go the way of Japan? We can
only wait and see. I have finally kept my emotion in check. It will not run wild. Back to Let's Learn Technical Analysis Index page for more articles...
Important: These charts and commentaries are provided as an education on how technical analysis can be used. Technical Analysis & Research is not an Investment Advisor and we do not claim to be one. These charts and commentaries are not to be construed as investment advice or any other investment service other than the originally intended purpose as stated here.
|
