Realistic Examples Of The Turtle Trading System
Cho Sing Kum
15th Mar 2006
The first example is on EuroFX futures on the IMM. The second is on
Sugar #11 futures on the NYBOT.
In 2002, it came two times, the second stretching into Feb2003.
In 2003, it came two times, the second stretching into Jan2004.
In 2004, it came only once, very late in the year.
In 2005, it came only once, by early July it was over.
These are the outliers. The ones that make the difference to a trading
system. As you can see, they don't come often. It is very rare you see
them.
So...
if you like a lot of activities,
if you like the excitement of the market place,
if you are impatient for results,
if you have a need to trade everyday or every other day,
if you can't walk away from the screen,
if you can't walk away from the market,
even when you have positions,
then this is not for you.
Because it will never work for you.
Chinese saying is "Eight Characters Clash".
If you like only profits,
if you are happy to take your profits early,
if you don't like losses,
if you let them run,
if you believe in the number games,
if you believe that good trading system
must show high percentage of winners
and low percentage of losers,
if you believe in the often advertised systems
of >90% accuracy,
of >95% accuracy,
if you are looking
for >100% profit in a few hours,
for >1000% profit in a few days,
then this system is not for you.
Because it will never work for you.
Chinese saying is "Eight Characters Clash".
This is a trend following system. You see its beauty only very rarely, but
see its downside often. This is life anyway. This is human nature. Look
around you. How often do you see the upside of things? How often do you
see the downside of things? You have walk the path of life, you should
know the answer by now. The market is no different. It is created by
humans and used by humans. Therein all the human nature will be present.
Trading system is no different.
The following $$$ is simulated results. A 58.53% return may not be
convincing. But before you let $$$ distract your mind, take note that the
simulation is ran on ONLY ONE SYMBOL with an account size of USD200,000.
With this account size, a lot more other symbols can be traded of course.
Have you seen the chart of Sugar#11?
But before you do, take a lot at the EuroFX futures chart. I try to show a
realistic picture of the realistic market. I believe in showing you the
good, the bad, and the ugly. Go on, pick them out. I don't believe in
showing you fantasy.
Once in a while a very super good friend of yours come along, the true
super friend of yours. Like Sugar #11 this time around. This type of
friends are, unfortunately very rare. But they do exist. This time around
even with a 225.69% over two years the accuracy is a lucky unusually high
78.95%. But look how much this may have contributed to the account.
Again I don't like the number game so commonly flashed on newspaper
advertisement nowadays. I show you when it can happen and therefore
correctly guide your expectation. I don't want to mislead you. Then add up
all the possible realistic numbers. Let there be reality. Let there be no
illusion.
Important Disclaimer:
Currencies, Stocks, Futures and Options trading have large
potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the
risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the currencies,
stocks, futures and
options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is
neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell currencies, stock, futures
or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is
likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web
site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not
necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN
LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT
REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED,
THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF
CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING
PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED
WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY
ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE
SHOWN.
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